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Бюджетный дефицит и Пути решения
Международный экономический кризис

Отрицательная (дефицит) и положительная (остаток бюджета) балансировка.

Дефицит бюджета – отрицательный баланс, возникающий вследствие инфляции и циклических процессов в экономике.

Бюджетный дефицит носит накопительный характер, т.е. он не возникает сразу, а в течение некоторого времени.

Цикличность экономических процессов, вследствие чего может наблюдаться периодический недостаток средств.

В период инфляционных процессов возникает ситуация, когда экономические субъекты стараются отложить момент уплаты налогов поэтому номинальные запланированные доходы не отвечают их реально полученной величине.

Следствия дефицита бюджета: изначально  в бюджет закладывается дефицит, но государство должно быть способным покрыть его и иметь источники его покрытия.

В России дефицит – 47,6% от ВВП, что мастрихтским соглашениям допустимо для включения ЕЭС (до 60%). Но по соотношению денежной массы с дефицитом уровень государственного бюджетного дефицита составляет более 360% (Германия – 200-220%).

Решением данной проблемы могут быть: грамотная структура государственного долга и грамотная налоговая политика.

Система государственного долга должна быть максимально структурно удлинена.

Система государственного заимствования должна быть максимально ликвидна.

Задачи государственного регулирования во время кризиса:

  • Стимулирование спроса

  • Формирование механизма встроенных рычагов, т.е. системы денежных потоков государства, которая обеспечила бы целесообразное использование денежных средств в целях сглаживания дефицита, а в случае подъёма экономики позволила бы правильно перераспределить денежные потоки с максимальным эффектом.

К рычагам относят:

  1. система государственных трансфертов: социальные трансферты, региональные (дотации, субсидии)

  2. налоговая система: прогрессивное налогообложение, снижение налогов в тех секторах, где циклический цикл сильнее проявился.

  3. процентная ставка.

Бюджетный дефицит характерен для стран с развивающейся экономикой.


Налоговые поступления.

Государственная задача – четкое планирование налоговых объёмов, определение номинальных и реальных поступлений, определение налоговых приоритетов, уход от системы налоговых освобождений.

Необходимо придерживаться структуры налоговых сборов (НДС, таможенные сборы, акцизы, подоходный налог, налог на прибыль и т.д.).

Разработка грамотной системы косвенных налогов и уменьшение налога на прибыль может привести к росту выпуска продукции и росту объёмов налоговых поступлений.

Сама система должна быть не столько карательной, сколько экономической.

Недопустимо кредитование министерств по льготным ставкам.

Центральный банк не должен прибегать к монетаризации экономики, а стоять на позиции формирования государственного долга за счет выпуска ценных бумаг.

Все меры по предотвращению спада должны проводиться в начале стагнации: работа с % ставкой, регулирование занятости, контроль за соотношением экспорта импорта. И на этом основании формирование валютного курса.

Задача государства в этом аспекте – обеспечить максимально длительный и эффективный экономический рост.


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