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монетарная политика
Международный экономический кризис

Федеральным резервом и банком Японии была проведена:

  1. политика совместной интервенции по восстановлению курса японской йены;

  2. согласованная политика в процессе установления процентных ставок.

Если раньше основным ориентиром в монетарной политике была борьба с инфляцией, то сейчас – рост внутренней экономики (рост промышленности).

Сегодняшние проблемы:

  1. Очень большая интегрированность $ в сфере обращения многих стран мира.

  2. Девальвация $ относительно большинства европейских валют (6-7% в среднем).

  3. Падение индекса Доу-Джонса – более 10%.

  4. Уход инвесторов с развивающихся рынков.

  5. Падение доходности на рынке государственных облигаций.

  6. Все западные фонды понесли за последний год убытки 20%.

  7. Страны, где экономика развивается на добывающей промышленности (Канада, Австралия, Россия и др.) – это первые претенденты в банкроты (падение цен на их продукцию и т.д.).

Ситуация в США:

Резкий отток инвестиций из самих США, в результате дальнейшее падение курса $. Замедление темпов роста экономики в целом по миру и в США в частности.


Этапы кризиса:

  1. Кризис в Юго-Восточной Азии (Малайзия, Индонезия, Южная Корея, Япония).

  2. Как следствие кризис в Восточной Европе и России.

  3. Вторая волна: ухудшилась ситуация в Японии и Индонезии, немного в Южной Корее.

  4. Дальнейшее ухудшение ситуации в Японии, коллапс в России. Отток инвестиций из стран Восточной Европы, Юго-Восточной Азии, России.

  5. Возникновение угрозы для рынков Южной Америки. Девальвация южно-американской валюты.

  6. Возникновение прямой угрозы для экономики Северной Америки (США). Возможное понижение ставок базисных мировых валют ($, фунт стерлинг и т.д.). Замедление темпов рост в странах большой семерки.


Выводы:

  1. Кризис кредитного рынка.

  2. Кризис рынка акций (как прямое следствие кризиса кредитного рынка). Индекс Доу-Джонса сначала рос, потом снизился на 25% (объявление предстоящей инфляции привело к забастовке на General Motors) Если произойдет падение инвестиционной активности в Латинской Америке, то можно будет говорить о спаде в США,

  3. Особенность этого мирового кризиса: для серьезных инвесторов затруднительно будет вкладывать деньги, т.к. Европа не находится на этапе развития. Вопрос: Если деньги выводить из США, то куда их вкладывать? Ответ: Возможно в Китай, Японию, немного в Европу. Но большая часть останется в США.


Тема: «Теория финансов»


Формирование финансовой системы государства

Финансы – система отношений по формированию и использованию целевых фондов в рамках имеющейся программы (бюджета или баланса).

Основные фонды:

  • фонд потребления и накопления;

  • долгосрочного финансирования (капитальные вложения);

  • спец. фонды, создаваемые в соответствии с потребностями в финансировании.

Систему финансов рассматривают на нескольких уровнях:

  1. государственные финансы;

  2. территориальные финансы;

  3. финансы предприятия;

  4. межгосударственные финансы.

Базовые документы, дающие представление о финансах:

  • баланс (бюджет, финансовый план);

  • торговый баланс, платежный баланс, счета прибылей и убытков;

  • отчетные документы: сводки по оборотам, кассовые исполнения планов.


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MYY



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