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Двухуровневое дерево решений для получения кредита
Юридическая форма предприятия и ее капитал

Рассчитаем ожидаемый доход для каждого узла дерева. Полученные данные отметим на рисунке.

NEB = (110000•0,98 + 0•0,02) – 100000 = 107800 – 100000 = 7800 долларов – чистый ожидаемый доход в узле В;

NEС = (104000•1,0) – 100000 = 104000 – 100000 = 4000 долларов – чистый ожидаемый доход в узле С;

NED = (110000•0,92 + 0•0,08) – 100000 = 101200 – 100000 = 1200 долларов – чистый ожидаемый доход в узле D;

NEE = (104000•1,0) – 100000 = 104000 – 100000 = 4000 долларов – чистый ожидаемый доход в узле Е;

Чистые ожидаемые доходы в узлах F и G равны соответственно чистым ожидаемым доходам в узлах A и B из второго раздела, т.е.

NEF = 4500 долларов, NEG = 4000 долларов.

Чтобы определить доход в точке 2, выбираем большее из значений доходов в узлах В и С, таким образом  чистый доход в точке 2  составит 7800 долларов.

Чтобы определить доход в точке 3, выбираем  большее из значений доходов в узлах D и E, таким образом чистый доход в точке 3  составит 4000 долларов.

Чтобы определить доход в точке 4, выбираем  большее из значений доходов в узлах F и G, таким образом чистый доход в точке 4  составит 4500 долларов.

NEА = 7800•0,73 + 4000•0,27 =  5694  + 1080 = 6774 долларов – чистый ожидаемый доход в узле А.

Чтобы определить максимальный чистого доход банка, необходимо выбрать большее из значений доходов в узле А и в точке 4. Большее значение имеет доход в узле А, затем  от выбранного значения дохода отнимем стоимость аудиторской проверки.

Предполагаемый максимальный чистый доход банка = NEА  - 200 = 6774 – 200 = 6574 долларов.

При сравнении полученного выше значения со значением максимального чистого дохода банка во втором разделе (без проведения аудиторской проверки), то можно сделать вывод о том, что банк получит большую прибыль, если будет пользоваться услугами аудиторской фирмы.

Максимальный чистый доход банка при ведении дел с использованием услуг аудиторской фирмы равен 6574 долларов.

  1. Финансовый план.

Наличные сметы позволяют выявить проблемы, связанные с наличностью, т.е. они показывают предпринимателю, сколько денег ему необходимо до и после начала функционирования предприятия.

Расходы по созданию предприятия

Статьи расходов Затраты ( $)
Величина Сумма
1. Оборотные средства:
1.1. Счета дебиторов
1.2. Запасы

0
0


0

2. Основные средства:
2.1. Здание
2.2.Оборудование

2.3.Транспортные расходы 2.4. Стоянка


95000 75000
15000
  5000







190000
3. Прочие активы:
Предоплата страхового полиса
Приобретение лицензии
Расходы по содействию сбыта
Оплата услуг профессионалов

10000
13000
5000
20000





48000


Всего: 238000

Наличная смета для оценки потребности в денежных средствах (в долларах США)

Показатели До начала работы фирмы. Месяцы после начала работы фирмы
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
  1. Ожидаемая выручка от реализации
-
  1. 22000
10000
  1. 12000
14000
  1. 16500
18000
  1. 22000
24000
  1. 22000
26000
  1. 28000
30000
  1. Поступление наличности













  1. Платежи покупателей в кредит
-
  1. 0
22000
  1. 10000
12000
  1. 14000
16500
  1. 18000
22000
  1. 24000
22000
  1. 26000
28000
  1. Расходование наличности













  1. Закупка товаров на создание запаса
3600
  1. 6000
7200
  1. 8400
9900
  1. 10800
13200
  1. 14400
13200
  1. 15600
16800
  1. 18000
18000
  1. Покрытие эксплуатационных расходов смета

  1. 6400
6400
  1. 6400
6400
  1. 6400
6400
  1. 6400
6400
  1. 6400
6400
  1. 6400
6400
  1. Итого (3.1+3.2)
3600
  1. 12400
13600
  1. 14800
16300
  1. 17200
19600
  1. 20800
19600
  1. 22000
23200
  1. 24400
24400
  1. Приобретение основных средств
200000












  1. Прочие активы
2000












  1. Итого (4+5+6)
238000












  1. Общий расход наличности
238000
  1. 12400
13600
  1. 14800
16300
  1. 17200
19600
  1. 20800
19600
  1. 22000
23200
  1. 24400
24400
  1. Сводные данные по движению наличности













  1. Общее поступление наличности
-
  1. 0
22000
  1. 10000
12000
  1. 14000
16500
  1. 18000
22000
  1. 24000
22000
  1. 26000
28000
  1. Общий расход наличности
238000
  1. 12400
13600
  1. 14800
16300
  1. 17200
19600
  1. 20800
19600
  1. 22000
23200
  1. 24400
24400
  1. Излишек или (нехватка)
(238000)
  1. (12400)
8400
  1. (4800)
(4300)
  1. (3200)
(3100)
  1. (2800)
2400
  1. 2000
(1200)
  1. 1600
3600
  1. Накопленная нехватка
(238000)
  1. (250400)
(242000)
  1. (246800)
(251100)
  1. (254300)
(257400)
  1. (260200)
(257800)
  1. (255800)
(257000)
  1. (255400)
(251800)
  1. Потребность в денежных средствах













  1. Максимальная нехватка
260200












  1. 10%-резерв на непредвиденные обстоятельства
26020












  1. Общая потребность в денежных средствах (округление до 1000 долларов США)
290000












  1. Остаток кассы на начало месяца
290000
  1. 52000
39600
  1. 48000
43200
  1. 38900
35700
  1. 32600
29800
  1. 32200
34200
  1. 33000
34600
  1. Излишек или нехватка
(238000)
  1. (12400)
8400
  1. (4800)
(4300)
  1. (3200)
(3100)
  1. (2800)
2400
  1. 2000
(1200)
  1. 1600
3600
  1. Остаток кассы на конец месяца
52000
  1. 39600
48000
  1. 43200
38900
  1. 35700
32600
  1. 29800
32200
  1. 34200
33000
  1. 34600
38200

Баланс на начало и конец первого года работы предприятия.

активы пассивы
статьи начало конец статьи начало конец
1.Оборотные средства:
  1. Касса
  2. Счета дебитор.
  3. Запасы
Итого:
2.Основные средства:
  1. Здание
  2. Оборудование
  3. Стоянка
Итого:
3. Другие активы
4. Всего активы


52000
0
36000
88000


140000
82000
3000
225000
70000
303800


38200
30000
42000
110200


130000
33360
1000
184360
8000
203380
5. Пассивы (налоги, зарплата)

290000 291000

Отчет о прибылях и убытках за первый год работы предприятия.

№ п/п Статьи Затраты Сумма ($)
1. Выручка от реализации
244500
2. Себестоимость реализации товаров
146700
3. Валовая прибыль
97800
4. Производственные издержки

5. Управленческие и торговые издержки 76800
6. Амортизационные отчисления 102000
7. Списание предварительно оплаченных издержек 70000 79800
8. Прибыль от основной деятельности
18000

С помощью графика рентабельности можно наглядно представить, какое количество продукции необходимо выпускать предприятию, чтобы получать прибыль.

График рентабельности.

img1

Из данного графика видно, что если фирма по каким-либо причинам сможет произвести менее 62 программных продуктов, то она будет работать себе в убыток. При достижении показателя в 62 продуктов, фирма сможет окупить затраты, но не получит прибыль. Но, поскольку планируемый объем выпуска – 140 программных продуктов, прибыль фирмы будет составлять 480000$.

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