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Юридическая форма предприятия и ее капитал
Юридическая форма предприятия и ее капитал

Компания специализируется на разработке и внедрении информационных технологий для управления предприятием. Предметом производства компании является программный продукт – корпоративная информационная система для автоматизации управления работы предприятия. Компания создана её нынешним высшим руководством на основе партнёрских взаимоотношений и совместного вложения собственного капитала в её уставной фонд.  Формой организации является закрытое акционерное общество, основная часть акций которого принадлежит его учредителям и руководителям. Т.е. происходит деление капитала на акции, и распространение акций возможно только среди учредителей и узкого круга лиц и реализация акций  посторонним только с общего согласия учредителей.

При этом для  дополнительного финансирования проекта рассматривается и вопрос о привлечении капитала с помощью банковского кредита. Нашему предприятию необходимо занять сроком на 1 год 100 тыс. долларов. Есть 2 варианта действий:

а) Банк может одолжить эти деньги под 10 % годовых, но банку известно, что 5 % клиентов не возвращают кредит;

б) Банк участвует в деле сам под 4% годовых, при этом риск и получаемая прибыль меньше.

Банку необходимо принять решение, давать ли заём или участвовать в деле самому.

Описанная задача имеет один уровень решения. Составим таблицу доходов  и построим дерево решений.

Таблица доходов в одноуровневой задаче.

№ п/п Возможные исходы Решение Вероятность
Выдать заем Не выдать заем
1 Возвращает кредит 10000 4000 0.95
2 Не возвращает -100000 4000 0.05
3 Чистый доход 4500 4000

Доход в случае, если заем будет выдан, и кредит будет уплачен, составит (100000 + 100000•10%) –100000 = 100000 + 10000 – 100000 = 10000 долларов.

Доход в случае, если заем не будет выдан, а банк будет участвовать в деле сам, составит (100000 + 100000•4%) –100000 = 100000 + 4000 – 100000 = 4000 долларов.

Если же заем будет выдан, но кредит не будет уплачен, то банк потеряет 100000 долларов, т.е. доход будет = -100000 долларов.

Построим  модель дерева решений, исходя из полученной информации:

Одноуровневое дерево решений для получения кредита.

Определяем чистый доход банка.

1)Чистый ожидаемый доход в узле А:

NEА = (110000•0.95 + 0•0.05) – 100000 = 104500 – 100000 = 4500 долларов

2) Чистый ожидаемый доход в узле В:

NEB = (104000•1.0) – 100000 = 104000 – 100000 = 4000 долларов –

3) Чистый доход банка равен большему из значений доходов в узлах А и В, т.е.

  Чистый доход банка = 4500 долларов.

Усложним условия задачи с учетом двух уровней, рассмотрим более сложную задачу.

Банк решает вопрос: проверять ли конкурентоспособность клиента перед выдачей денег в кредит. Аудиторская фирма берет с банка 200 долларов за каждую проверку.

Банком решаются 2 вопроса:

а) Проводить или не проводить аудиторскую проверку;

б) Выдавать кредит после проверки или участвовать самостоятельно.

Решая первую проблему, банк проверяет правильность выдачи денег.

Банк выбирает 1000 человек, которые претендуют на получение кредита. Эта задача является двухуровневой.

Ниже представлена  таблица, в которой определено, каким образом были распределены 1000 человек, выбранные банком в качестве претендентов на получение кредита.

Таблица по распределению 1000 человек,

выбранных банком в качестве претендентов на получение кредита.


Рекомендации после проверки

Фактическое решение Всего
Ссуду вернули Ссуду не вернули
Давать заем 713 17 730
Не давать заем 249 21 270
Всего 962 38 1000

Вычисляем вероятности каждого из исходов:

Вероятность «вернут ссуду и будут рекомендованы аудиторской фирмой»:

Р(в,р) = 713 / 730 = 0,98;

Вероятность «не вернут ссуду и будут рекомендованы аудиторской фирмой»:

Р(не,р) = 17 / 730 = 0,02;

Вероятность «вернут ссуду и не будут рекомендованы аудиторской фирмой»:

Р(в,не) = 249 / 270 = 0,92;

Вероятность «не вернут ссуду и не будут рекомендованы аудиторской фирмой»:

Р(не,не) = 21 / 270 = 0,08.

Построим  двухуровневую модель дерева решений, исходя из полученной информации:

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