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Зависимость роста объема производства от изменения величины производственных фондов
Зависимость роста объема производства от изменения величины производственных фондов

Для выполнения прогноза необходимо найти закономерность зависимой переменной от независимой и определить их влияние друг на друга с помощью регрессионного анализа.

Условие задачи:

Необходимо, получить формулу зависимости роста объема производства (10 тыс. $) продукции у от изменения величины производственных фондов х за 9 месяцев наблюдения. Независимые переменные – х, зависимые – у.

у х
10 16
15 20
21 22
23 20
25 25
34 23
32 25
37 28
41 30

Изучая переменные зависимые (функции) и независимые (аргументы), можно сказать, что изменение функции у от изменения аргумента х происходит по линейному закону. Закон изменения зависимой переменной от изменения независимой у=а+bх. Определим параметры а и b:

b = (nåxy - åxåy) / (nåx2 - (åx)2) = (95855 - 209238)/(95003 - 2092) = 2.19

a = åy/n - (båx/n) = 238/9 - 2.19209/9 = -24.5

y = -24.5 + 2.19x

Исходные и расчетные данные

№ п/п у х х•у х² у² y=-24.5+2.19x e=у-у
1 10 16 160 256 100 10.60 -0.60
2 15 20 300 400 225 19.38 -4.38
3 21 22 462 484 441 23.76 -2.76
4 23 20 460 400 529 19.38 3.62
5 25 25 625 625 625 30.34 -5.34
6 34 23 782 529 1156 25.96 8.04
7 32 25 800 625 1024 30.34 1.66
8 37 28 1036 784 1369 36.93 0.07
9 41 30 1230 900 1681 41.31 -0.31

Уравнение регрессии: y = -24.5 + 2.19x

Исследование формы связи. График отображает статические данные и линию регрессии, рассчитанную путем подстановки значений, взятых из статических данных.

img1

Графическое решение методом регрессионного анализа.

Шансы предприятия: эффективное выполнение работы и возможность расширения производства за счет работников, являющихся  специалистами высокого класса в области информационных технологий, позволит достичь поставленной стратегической цели. Опасности предприятия: потеря покупателей из-за высокой конкуренции на рынке информационных технологий.

  1. Коммуникация. План компьютеризации предприятия.

Поскольку предметом производства компании является корпоративная информационная система для автоматизации документооборота предприятия и управления его работы, то, конечно, в первую очередь эта система будет внедрена и опробована на практике и в самой компании. Это позволит автоматизировать значительную часть функций по информационному обеспечению управления предприятием и тем самым сделать упростить работу по руководству предприятием, а соответственно и повысить эффективность его работы.

Стратегией компании в области внутренних коммуникаций является максимально возможный перевод документооборота с бумажных носителей в электронную форму. Поэтому для автоматизации процесса коммуникаций на нашем предприятии введена электронная система учета и контроля. Для общения работников предприятия по производственным вопросам разработана специальная почтовая программа. Для контроля над выполнением производственных задач корпоративная информационная система  также включает программу-организатор служебных заданий.

Поскольку наша компания занимается разработкой программного обеспечения и основным  инструментом работы является компьютер, то основными затратами на первоначальное обустройство предприятия станут расходы на покупку компьютеров и сопутствующей техники, а также необходимого программного обеспечения и подключение к высокоскоростному каналу доступа в Интернет. Каждому работнику предприятия для выполнения своих служебных обязанностей понадобиться современный персональный компьютер. Эти рабочие станции будут объединены в локальную сеть с помощью серверов, на которых будет храниться и обрабатываться вся информация. В итоге затраты на компьютеризацию предприятия должны составить около 60 % от общих затрат на обустройство предприятия.

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#9 | muniekole August 11 2017 23:02:33
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#10 | muniekole August 29 2017 20:23:17
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